0003160 G.F. 316
SECRET
(b)
(c)
(d)
Evidence from reliable sources indicates that the C. P. G. have no intention of mounting a full scale military attack on the Colony while their present policy remains unchanged;
A major influx of illegal immigrants across the land frontier is unlikely to occur whilst the present conditions in Kwangtung persist and the C. C. A. continues to retain efficient control of the border. Unless there is a complete breakdown of law and order in Kwangtung, which is considered unlikely, illegal immigration is expected to continue at its present low level. C. C. A. 's determination to maintain control of the border could cause further technical incursions into British Territory; this will necessitate continued restraint on the part of British Security Forces;
The
The potential threat posed by the Sha Tau Kok "escapees" has decreased considerably and those remaining in C. T. are now under the control of the C. C, A. Nevertheless the continued presence of known agitators in a very sensitive area continues to present a potential threat to security:
(e)
Action by Security Forces against Communists in the urban areas could produce militant reactions in the border zone, such action is uniikely while the Communists follow their present policy;
but
(f)
It seems probable that the Chinese Border Authorities are aware of the curren ́ :.
. P. G. directive concerning a non-violent struggle in Hong Kong and any resurgence of premeditated militant activity seems to be unlikeïy. The major threat in the border area remains the danger that a minor incident could get out of hand and involve the C. C. A. If this happened the use of armed force, though unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
24.
In short, the most recent C. P. G. instructions to local Communists have reiterated the policy of a long term, non-violent struggle which was first promulgated in December 1967. This, together with more stable conditions in Kwangtung, is likely further to reduce tension in the border area where ever the C. C. A. exercises firm control. The main threat to security lies in the possibility that a minor incident could get out of hand and involve the C. C. A. The area is extremely sensitive and there appears to be a need for a continuation of security measures in excess of those obtaining prior to confrontation.
COLONIAL SECRETARIAT. 3rd January, 1969.
SECRET