0003160 G.F. 316
14.
SECRET
Following the factional fighting in Kwangtung Province, particularly during May, June and July, which was largely confined to the cities and towns, the C. C. A, has restored order and efforts to disband the major factions have generally been successful. Current emphasis in Kwangtung Province is on the role of workers and peasants at the expense
of students, large numbers of whom have been sent to assist the farmers; 2. considerable number of these are now working in the border communes. An anti-rightist campaign is also in full swing with the expressed aim of investigating such categories as counter revolutionaries, capitalists and K. M. T. spies. As a result, a number of important cadres in the border area are reported to have been removed from office. The tempo of this campaign shows little sign of slackening and is almost certain to cause some unrest.
15.
The summer harvest in the border area was generally good and the autumn harvest is reported to be one of the best ever. A good harvest is also reported from other parts of the Province and, although problems of distribution still continue, food shortages seem unlikely to cause any mass exodus. ïllegal immigration is, therefore, expected to remain at the present low level.
16.
The Committee of the People in Kwangtung Province to support the struggle of the patriotic countrymen in Hong Kong and Kowloon against British Imperialist violence", formed in November 1967, has been virtually inactive except for periodic statements apparently designed to boost the morale of Communists in Hong Kong. There is no indication it will take a more active role and indeed the latest directive from China (see paragraph 12) indicates that compatriots in Hong Kong are "on their own". However the committee does remain a potential threat; should the present policy of the C. P.G. change to a more militant one, it could exert considerable influence over the conduct of the militia leaders and other residents in the border area.
SPECIFIC THREATS.
A Full Scale Military Attack Against the Colony,
17.
Mention should perhaps be made of this although such a threat seems very unlikely in the light of current intelligence on present C. P.G. policy. There is no evidence to suggest that there has been any increase in the C, C, A, in the immediate border area but the ability of the C. C. A. already in the area to mount an attack in overwhelming strength on Hong Kong clearly remains. Moreover, there might be no effective warning of
such an attack.
A MAJOR INFLUX OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ACROSS THE LAND FRONTIER
18.
The main factors affecting this possibility revolve around conditions in Kwangtung Province and the ability of the C. C. A. to control the border zone. Under present conditions it would appear that, except in the unlikely event of a complete and rapid breakdown of law and order, no major influx is to be expected.
SECRET
/ DEFEATED