Comments on B.0.T. Paper "Textiles :
Problems and Possible Solutions"
Enclosure 1
General
On
it
The paper does not seem to us to take account of the conflicting pressures within the American Administration and between the Congress and the Administration. We cannot yet talk of what 'the Americans' want or what 'the Americans' intend to do. Indeed Robert Barnett, Deputy Assistant Under-Secretary of State for Economic Affairs said to Haddon-Cave and Jordan recently, "no-one knows what Maurice Stans' strategy is because Maurice Stans doesn't know himself". We know that the State Department and the Gilbert Office have been opposing his "across-the-board restrictions" ideas. the other hand that is what many members of Congress want. But when we talk about "unilateral action" (para. 9 of the paper) we think we should recognise that this would not be unilateral action by 'the Americans': would be by the Congress, and it would face the President with a very unpleasant decision. Our impression is that he would be most reluctant to assent to such a Bill and that the Administration would do a great deal to avoid having to face this issue. Indeed, Stans himself is still asking Congress to hold off (which was, we think, the real meaning of his '90-days threat'). At a recent press conference at which he spoke of the Japanese agreement to come to Washington in September "without any commitment to negotiate or reach an agreement", he said "As long as there is progress on a voluntary solution, legislation should not be enacted. As of today, my recommendation is that we (the Administration) oppose Legislation".
2.
Public attitudes have been struck only by Stans and the textile lobby but this doesn't mean that 'the American' attitude is that there must be restraint, though this was Stans' line when he came to Hong Kong. are three alternatives
3.
(a)
(b) (c)
an international agreement,
bilateral voluntary restraint agreements,
unilateral action by the Congress
which would you prefer?" !
"There
He has made very little progress so far and, allowing for the fact that Mills apparently published his Bill and made his later statement only to strengthen Stans' hand just before he left for his two visits to Tokyo, we think that the danger of Congressional action seems now a bit less than it was a few months ago (but this may be because we are in the middle of the long hot summer).
Paragraph 1(b)
4.
We think it is important to record that what we are concerned with here is not President Nixon's public election commitment but his private pre-nomination commitment to Strom Thurmond & Co. Anthony Jurich (Special Assistant to the Secretary of the Treasury) said to Jordan the other day "President Nixon has a commitment to help the textile industry. He hasn't decided yet how to help them". In other words, it isn't the public commit- ment to 'seek to extend the concept of the C.T.A.' to other fibres that matters : it is the private commitment to help the textile industry.
Paragraph 2/