CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM
From:
To:
Reference:
Dated:
Prodrome, Geneva
Candihong, Hong Kong
GVA/10/8
17 January 1969
Preferences: Hong Kong's Fosition
No. 8/69
I am preparing a separate memorandum reporting on the formal
proceedings at the meeting of the OECD Ad Hoc Working Group on Preferences on 13 and 14 January. This memorandum sets ut further impressions I have gained on Hong Kong's position. It is written after reading A.L.'s memorandum No. 19 of 8 January.
2.
As I see it, the key to the whole issue lies in the attitudes which are finally adopted by the EEC and the United States. These two markets are so large (particularly før Hong Kong) that what is done by e.g. the Nordic countries, Switzerland, Canada, Austria, etc., will be
quantitatively of little importance.
Furthermore, in this instance I
doubt whether these tails will wag the two big dogs but that rather, if both the EEC and the U.S. were to exclude Hong Kong, some, and perhaps most, of the others would tend to fall into line, if only on grounds f burden-sharing.
3.
I would also at this stage somewhat discount any change in the Japanese attitude, even if it has taken place, which is problematical (but see below). I doubt whether what the Japanese say one way or the other on the position of Hong Kong will now have very much influence on either the Americans or the EEC, especially as both of them must be fully appraised of H.M.G.'s feelings in the matter. Even if the Japanese attitude on this issue has recently become more neutral, the major factors bearing on the policies of the two giants will still be
ww
(a) internal considerations, and
(b) political anxiety to present to developing countries as a whole
a scheme to which they will at least give some degree of welcome.
CONFIDENTIAL
/EEC