From: - Air Commodore E.B
Mr Carles
Joh.
TOP SEOMET
22/i.
CB, CBK, AFC, RAF.
Copy No. 3 of 5 copies
20
7167
D of DP(C) 601/1
21st January, 1969.
HONG KONG - LONG TERM STUDY
As I mentioned on the telephone on Friday, Air Vice Marshal Cameron (ACDS (Pol)) wished to comment on the paper on this subject circulated under reference OPDO (DR) (69)2 of 10th January, 1969.
The gist of his comment is that the course of action suggested in para 67(iv) on the lines of an "informal and disallowable" approach to Pekin with the aim of reaching some tacit agreement on withdrawal may be the only ultimate solution, but it does carry an inevitable element of risk. It is not for us to comment on the likelihood of a leak (which might be inspired or not) or the difficulty of convincing repudiation on our part. However, the risks could be sufficient to precipitate the probleme highlighted in paras 58 64, and bring in their train almost total breakdown of law and order, and inevitable loss of confidence in the colony.
Under these circumstances there would then seem to be two courses of action open to us. The first would be a precipitate withdrawal, and the second would be an almost open-ended commitment for a considerable Internal Security operation to stabilize affairs sufficiently to allow for an orderly withdrawal. Neither of these is likely to be at a time of our own choosing and would, therefore, be to our disadvantage. ACDS (Pol)'s view is that, before any such approach is seriously contemplated, the appropriate military planning for either of these two eventualities, and any others which may be necessary, should be put in hand.
Naturally, there is no suggestion that any such planning should take place in advance of a decision to implement an informal and diaallowable approach. However, it is a factor which should not be overlooked and, for this reason, the point should be touched on in the paper. Possibly para 73 would be the place for an amendment on these lines:-
Line 7.
.adequately serve its purpose and some military contingency planning for the possibility of a leak, would, therefore, be necessary. But it does..
H.C.W. Bushell, Esq.,
Cabinet Office, London, S. ....1.
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