1
TOP SECRET
(vi) Events in the Colony:
i.e. disorders or economic
distress which directly or seriously damaged Chinese
prestige or obliged China to take active steps to fulfil her self-assumed role of "protector" of all those of
Chinese race.
(vii) Other developments in the Colony: e.g.
constitutional advances tending to indicate that Hong Kong might be making progress towards a separate
identity, thus making its eventual recovery more difficult. (viii) A breakdown of order in China e.g. as the result
of crisis after the death or removal of Mao could leave
the initiative on Hong Kong in the hands of local
militants or of the provincial authorities in Kwantung.
(b) Towards maintenance of the status quo
(i) The Colony's economic value to China in British
hands: it could have at the best a very limited value in Chinese hands.
(ii) The Colony's value as a base for subversive propaganda and as an outlet to the Western world. (iii) The Colony is a useful hostage for use against Britain and could possibly be so used against other
countries.
(iv) The administrative embarrassment of taking over a largely sullen population and a complex economy which
China could not sustain, with the likely result that a large part of the population would have to be resettled
in China.
(v) Fear that a take-over might bring unforeseeable
international repercussions, particularly a reaction
from the United States.
(vi) Chinese morale: Hong Kong is a safety valve for
the discontented in South China. If hope of excape was dashed, discontent in that area (always a touchy one for Chinese Governments) might become uncontrollable. (vii) Scale: to Peking Hong Kong is a small problem
in a remote and rather uncivilised corner of China.
It can be dealt with at any time (by external pressure). Chou En-lai is reported to have said recently: "It should not have had to come to the
attention of the Prime Minister himself."
TOP SECRET
/There