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however, probably true that they would only be deterred in

this way from military action against Hong Kong which could

be clearly defined as "Chinese aggression". It is much less

likely that a deterrent of this sort could put an end to the

incitement to subversion in Hong Kong, since the Chinese would

calculate, quite correctly, that there is no point at which

such subversion can be considered as the justification for

nuclear retaliation against China.

53. Th Americans would like us to stay in Hong Kong for as

long as possible because of Hong Kong's value for

Ripolitive long

A§ 51

Arunod

3(4) OF THE PUBLIC RECORDS ACT 1958 IN THE DEPARTMENT UNDER SECTION THE ORIGINAL HAS BEEN RETAINED THIS IS A COPY

and its political value as a Free World enclave on

Though the American

MY

the mainland of China.

reasons, however, they would be very unlikely to be willing to

give a public nuclear guarantee for Hong Kong nor for our own

reasons would we wish them to do so. There is, however, advantage

in trying to make the Chinese believe that the Americans are

involved in or committed to the defence of Hong Kong. The

continued presence of American warships in Hong Kong is helpful

in this connection. It might be helpful to seek American support

and understanding for the policies which we desire to adopt. The

advantages and disadvantages together with the ways and means of

doing so might be considered separately.

or domestic as well as international

most felucramp

54.

G. WITHDRAWAL

Hong Kong's geographical position, its preponderantly

Chinese population, the artificial nature of its economic

and political base

these factors, coupled with China's declared

claims and intentions, indicate that the Colony's future must

Pr

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/inevitably

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