TOP SECRET

that

ha

dimanding a ban on three comply with a Chinese ultimatum on the treatment of-

newspapers be lifted, stis probable

communist Press representatives in Hong Kong, Recent

exchanges with the Chinese indicate that members of the

British Mission and also possibly other British subjeets

Were

in China are being held as hostages by the Chinese in order la vy

The Chinese might still hope that to secure concessions on Hong Kong. (it is just as likely, however, detention of other British Subyect's will helps to achieve their objectives though in view of their that they would similarly use our Mission, etc. to bring pressure. failure to use the Rission for this purpose this may be largely to satisfy their supporters to bear on us for other ends)—–

in Hong Kong.

X Economic

5. Our exports to Hong Kong in 1967 were £62 million f.o.b.

(of the same order as our exports to Japan), a proportion of

which goes on to other markets through Hong Kong. If the

Hong Kong market was lost to us, we might save what we could

sell direct in the markets hitherto supplied through Hong Kong,

but clearly a lot of these frustrated exports would be

difficult to sell elsewhere at first.

6. Our imports from Hong Kong in 1967 were £89 million c.i.f.,

of which £34 million was in clothing and £18 million in textiles.

If these imports were totally stopped, there would be some

substitution, particularly from other Eastern suppliers, of

all types of goods; in the case of textiles, which are subject

to quantitative control, such substitution could be regulated.

We derive some economic advantage in being able to obtain cheap

supplies from Hong Kong. Their loss might lead to a rise in

prices of certain goods in the United Kingdom but there would,

of course, be relief from the embarrassment (mainly political)

caused by the competition of Hong Kong exports with our textile

and certain light industries.

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17.

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