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take their course in Hong Kong until September:
(a) The effects on Mr. Grey's health of this prolongation
of his ordeal.
Present indications are that he
should be able to bear the strains until September.
But this is a matter which we must keep under constant
review, on the meagre evidence available to us.
(b) Possible difficulties with parliamentary and public
opinion in this country. I think, however, that we
should find that public opinion here is by no means
unanimously in favour of concessions to the Chinese.
We have so far refrained from using to the full the
strong arguments for refusing to pay ransom in Hong
Kong, lest this would stimulate indignation against
the Chinese and lead to increased pressure for
unhelpful measures against them in this country
pressures which Mr. Long explained to the Secretary
of State he had had to cope with in Fleet Street.
It is difficult to predict how public opinion might
move in coming weeks. Once it becomes public know-
ledge in May that all eleven newsworkers are due to
be released in mid-September, it may become progressively
easier to hold the situation as we approach that date.
The possible effects on Chinese policy if we fail
to make what they would regard as any significant
gesture towards them over the Grey case. Mr. Cradock has in the past argued from Peking that if we simply let the eleven newsworkers out in September the Chinese
(c)
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