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CONFIDENTIAL

eleven patriotic journ lists in intoler ble conditions in

rong rong. * It is of interest that none of these statements

specifically guaranteed that the release of the thirteen would

secure the release of är. Grey, or that this is the unalterable

price.

(111) "Frevent them releasing him to-morrow as a magnanimous gesture": If we are right in our observations that the Chinese have been careful not to tie their own hands, then it presumably follows that they have not ruled out the possibility of the release of Mr. Grey should they find it advantageous to do so (e.g. in the interests of terminating the confrontation in Hong Kong) or feel that they had lost the propaganda battle surrounding hie detention. They have, in fact, said nothing which prevents their releasing his at a tie of their choosing; and they would surely know how to present this as an act of statesmanship.

(1v) *For the Chinese to release him for less would now be a

ublic olimb down": Given the care with which the Chinese have

worded their utterances on Grey, his release for less than thirteen (pry now, eleven) newɛ workers would not necessarily involve a public climb down. In any case, as cuggested

immediately above, the Chinese would not lack the meone to prevent their act in a favour ble light.

(v)

ua

*I fear we shall not get Grey for less than this price": e share Fr. Cradock'e fears, but do not necessarily draw the

same conclusions.

CONFIDENTIAL

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