CONFIDENTIAL
(including the release of detainees) as an acceptable risk which would not endanger security or undermine public confidence.
Against: In the absence of any clear and overt indication of a
Chinese desire for de-escalation, Hong Kong public opinion would tend to regard a conciliatory policy as a sigh of weakness and of submission to Chinese pressure, without securing any quid pro quo and leading to further Chinese demands. Confidence would be seriously affected as a result. In addition, there would be a risk to Hong Kong's security (which should be the paramount consideration) in revoking such measures as those dealing with inflammatory posters and fireworks and in releasing some of the detainees prematurely (particularly those from the New Territories).
11. Parliamentary and Public Opinion in the United Kingdom
For:
The present position may be increasingly difficult to defend here one year after the campaign of violence has ceased.
Against: The retention of emergency powers can be defended, in Hong
Kong and abroad, on the basis that China's intentions remain obscure and local communists are committed to continue their
struggle" against the British authorities.
12. Sino-British Relations
For:
Gestures of de-escalation might produce a better atmosphere for Sino-British relations and thus help the plight of British subjects detained in China (e.g. Mr. Grey).
Against: In the absence of any definite indication that China wants
an improvement in Sino-British relations gestures of de-escalation on our part may well not be matched, could be construed as weakness and might lead to the continued detention of British subjects as worthwhile hostages.
Major Considerations
13. In discussions with the Governor on 25 October the Secretary of State accepted, in the context of the administration of Hong Kong, that detainees should be gradually released as part of the process of de-escalation subject to the need to take full account of security considerations in Hong Kong. In this department's view security considerations must remain the paramount factor both in determining the rate of release of detainees and in considering the possibility of revoking emergency regulations; these are essentially matters for local assessment and judgment. The other major consideration is Chinese intentions. If the risks in Hong Kong of revoking the remaining confrontation emergency powers (thus releasing all the detainees) are locally assessed to be reasonable and if the assessment of Chinese intentions is similarly optimistic then there might be a case for a gamble. But if those risks are considerable then the gamble becomes too long a shot for such high stakes.
CONFIDENTIAL
/ 14.