WORLD AFFAIRS
Peace?
Out of the confusion which President Johnson created by his speech on March 31 at least one thing is clear he has tried to give himself greater freedom of action. He always tried to keep as many options open as possible and he had got himself into a position where most were closed. Now that he is out of the election campaign, he is better placed either to engage in peace talks, or to continue the war.
The area of North Vietnam in which the bombing has continued is so large that it appeared certain that Hanoi would refuse peace talks. Yet Hanoi on April 3 agreed to talks "to decide with the U.S. side on the uncondition- al cessation of the bombing and of all acts of war ag- ainst the DRV so that peace talks can begin". This is a change ofattitude. Hitherto Hanoi has insisted on a complete and unconditional end to the bombing before any kind of talks could begin. Now it has agreed to talk before the bombing has completely ended.
But it is too early to judge whether Hanoi's acceptance of talks with the U.S. is more than a device to sap the fighting spirit of American and South Vietnamese troops. If it is, then two factors would be relevant. One is the publication on March 21 by Hanoi of a decree on counter revolutionary crimes. Among them were sabotage, armed rebellion, defection to the enemy and "under- mining national defence and the struggle against U.S. aggression, which is aimed at defending the North, lib- erating the South and reunifying the country". The same day Nhan Dan, the main Hanoi paper, attacked "elements who have been engaged in plotting to check the northern people's support for the southern compatriots' war of liberation".
Clearly there has been considerable opposition to con- · tinuing the war in North Vietnam. But what is most sig- nificant is that this decree, though published only in March, was in fact signed last November at the end of a campaign in September and October on the need to strengthen internal security. It now begins to appear that there could have been a fierce debate last autumn in the Central Committee on the advisability of contin- uing or ending the war and that the hawks won approval for a last massive offensive to try to end it the Tet offensive which in fact proved inconclusive.
The second factor that is relevant to Hanoi's changed attitude is that there has been a significant reduction in recent months in Chinese aid. Sabotage, absenteeism and anarchism in the wake of the cultural revolution have hit particularly coal and oil production and the railway system - all of which play a vital role in keep- ing supplies moving to Vietnam. Soviet shipments through China must also have been affected, and they had already been hit by the closing of the Suez Canal.
Hong Kong
• Hong Kong is expecting more disorders this coming summer. Minor clashes with the police are already commonplace. The oppressive heat of summer, it is feared, will ignite the tinder left over from last year's troubles the most serious since the war. And when schools and colleges close for the holidays, thousands of students will become available for agitators to exploit.
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Three reasons lie behind this pessimism. Firstly there is continued dissatisfaction with labour conditions; though the standard of living has risen impressively in recent years, sweatshops have not entirely disappeared. Secondly there is discontent at a government system in which the people have no say (both the Legislative and Executive Councils are appointed, not elected, bodies). And thirdly the overwhelming majority of the population resents being ruled by the 1.5% who are not Chinese.
Most observers believe that the police, who were extremely efficient last year, should be well able to cope again. They might lose control only if the com- munists, who alone have any degree of real organisa- tion, go all out to cause trouble which is unlikely. Even last year, when China's cultural revolution was at its height, they did not pull out all the stops. And China, from where the marching orders come, has .proved in the past to be well aware of the economic ad- vantages of a prosperous Hong Kong through which half her foreign exchange comes.
• FSL Dec 21, '67: "Close friends report Pres. Johnson is very tired and might drop out of the election race". This report in greater detail was repeated March 24. 1968. He announced he will not stand again April 1.
● FSL Mar 28, '68: "Western Ambassa- dors in Washington report the Presi- dent will order a pause in the bomb- ing when he believes the time is ripe". He announced the pause April 1.
So the communists are likely to use latent discontent to cause enough trouble to embarrass Britain, while Peking will keep a finger on the safety-catch. The danger is that non-communist discontents, outside the immediate control of the Party, may enter the fray in sufficient numbers for the police to have difficulty in maintaining control.
This is why more and more voices are heard urging the Hong Kong government to change its ways. Up till now it has seen its role as purely 'responsive' to dev- elopments as they happen. Now there is a growing feel- ing that it should be looking ahead and initiating action
in such fields as labour and electoral reform
in an effort to avoid trouble, rather than simply sitting back and waiting for it.
Nasser Speaks
On March 30 President Nasser announced a major programme of political reform which is to be put to a referendum on May 2. If it is approved, he will set it in motion by naming a committee to prepare elections for a National Congress of the Arab Socialist Union, Egypt's only political party. The Congress will meet on July 23 and, if it wishes, can take on the task of drafting a constitution: this has hitherto been the res- ponsibility of the present National Assembly, which thus ends its life with its work unfinished. Completion of the new constitution is in effect put off to the indef- inite future because it is to be approved by a plebiscite only "after the elimination of the consequences of ag- gression". Elections will be held for a new National Assembly and President under the new constitution.
This new political programme is designed to prevent further demonstrations by students like those in Febru- ary (FSL 1065, 66); they had in fact planned more for this week. Nasser can argue that their demands for free elections and the rule of law are granted in his new pro- gramme. But the students in fact are likely to feel that his proposals are not only insufficient but unlikely to be seriously implemented. However, the plebiscite on May 2 and the organisation of elections for the Nat- ional Assembly on July 23 will conveniently straddle the first anniversary of the June war potentially a dangerous time, when new demonstrations are likely.
Nasser insisted that priority would be given to prep- arations for the next battle with the enemy, a battle which would "efface all traces of aggression". Yet,