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(a) The external threat from the Chinese is
unlikely to take the form of direct military
intervention.
(b)
Initially at any rate, the Chinese would
probably act through incitement to internal
disorder.
(c) It is therefore unrealistic to seek to isolate
a uniquely "military" rôle for a Services
presence which in so far as it is indispensible
for the maintenance of morale and confidence in
the Colony is a buttress for our position in all
its aspects.
f
:
10. The Commonwealth Secretary is expected to dispute the
Defence Secretary's decision on costs, and to contest his
distinction between internal security and external defence
for costing purposes, on the lines of the preceding paragraph.
He will probably argue that the criterion that has hitherto
ruled the size of Hong Kong's contribution to its own defence
costs has been the Colony's ability to pay. We should wish
to support this view although we have reservations on whether
it should remain the sole criterion. We should therefore wish
to press for the treatment of Hong Kong as a special case with
a special defence vote.
Defence Department.
27 May, 1968
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