}

37.

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CONCLUSIONS

ANNEX A to DP_9/68(c)

Draft)(Continued)

We conclude that:

a.

Despite the apparent lull in confrontation resulting

from a change in tactics by the Chinese Communists,we can

discern no weakening of their long term intentions to take

over control of the colony. The threat to internal

security, coupled with the ability of the Chinese to

aggravate the situation on the border, has in no sense

diminished.

b.

The continued maintenance of confidence within the

colony is of paramount importance. Whereas any reduction

below 7 major units may be acceptable whilst the Commander-

in-Chief retains the ability to reinforce from within the

theatre, it will be necessary to bring the garrison back

to its full strength before the withdrawal is complete.

Although it is difficult to be precise at this stage,

because of the military and political uncertainties, it would

be prudent to plan for the Hong Kong Garrison by the end

of 1971 to consist of:

C.

(i)

Royal Navy.

2 Frigates

(ii)

Army.

5 Mine Counter Meaure Vessels

1 Small Tanker/Stores ship

H.M.S. TAMAR, with small increase in complement.

7 Major Units.

(iii) Royal Air Force 6 Whirlwind helicopters

5 Hunter aircraft

1 Squadron, PAF Regiment

RAF KAI TAK Staging post

Radar, and control facilities

In the event of a serious emergency, it would be

necessary to reinforce the Hong Garrison to a total of

103 major units to meet the Commander-in-Chief's new

operational concept. These reinforcing units would have

to be provided from the United Kingdom.

A

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