Cypher/Cat A
IMMEDIATE
SECRET
PEKING TO FOREIGN OFFICE
Telno. 142 2 February, 1967
SECRET
дний
Mr. Bailan
3
11044
Reg.
21/2
Addressed to Foreign Office telegram No. 142 of 2 February. Repeated for information to: Hong Kong, POLAD Singapore.
(2)
Hong Kong telegram No. 153 to Commonwealth Office: Exercise Caricature.
It is more than usually difficult to predict Chinese reaction to this exercise as in present extraordinary situation normal ground rules may not apply.
Three factors would seem to militate against a severe
Chinese reaction:
(a) Only British forces are involved;
(b) Present Chinese preoccupation with internal
events;
and
(c) Lack of reaction to recent American visits.
On the other hand the Chinese might welcome an international diversion. They have exploited to the full recent incidents abroad involving Chinese students with unpleasant consequences for our Soviet and French colleagues. According to B.B.C. News Mao's supporters in Harbin say they "have smashed a plot by the Soviet According Union, the United States and Japan to attack China".
to present information neither Canton nor the Province of Kwangtung have yet been "taken over" and Chinese might welcome opportunity to present Exercise Caricature as threat of imperialist intervention.
3. On balance I think we might get away with it provided there is no American participation and no connexion in narrative or publicity with Americans or SEATO. It would be better if there were no American observers. On the other hand in present circumstances for reasons explained above the risk of a violent Chinese reaction can certainly not be excluded. Degree of risk may be easier to assess in light of events between now and date of exercise.
Mr. Hopson
DEPARTMENTAL DISTRIBUTION
F.E.D.
S.E.A.D.
D.D. & P.U.S.D.
D.I.S. M.O.D.
Sent 0834Z 2 February Recd. 0907Z 2 February
ADVANCE COPIES SENT
(2)
SECRET
RECEIVED IN
ARCHIVES N
20161987
FILIA 10/6 WA15/6