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of the Colony owing to the intensification of civil disturbances or where
Chinese troops had crossed the frontior in force. It was considered,
howover, that in practice, the difference between the two situations would
have no great significanco. If control of the situation in the Colony wore
lost, then Chinoso military intervention would be likely; if, on the other
hand, the Chineso planned to launch a military attack, they would arrango
for it to be accompanied by widespread disturbances in Hong Kong. In either
cass, police and British forces would be fully oxtended and able to do
little to cover an evacuation.
(c) It is clear from the foregoing that the possibility of being able to
ovacuato our trops would be remote, except in the unlikely circumstances
of a negotiated, large-scale withdrawal from the Colony. A fighting
withdrawal on the lines of Dunkirk, when all else had been over-run, could
not be entirely excluded if shipping could be made available, but it seems
most improbable. Should it not provo possible to extricate our troops,
they would of course add significantly to the number of hostages who could
be used by the Chinese for bargaining purposes.
(d) As indicated above, knowledge that ovacuation planning was in progress
would deal a severe blow to public confidence in the Colony. Tho
strictost precautions to avoid any leak are thoroforo nocossary.
(o) The paper does not take into account the possible effects on opinion
in the Colony, and honce on our possible plans for evacuation, of action
by other nations, in particular the United States, if the situation in the
Colony worsened. Such action for oxample, the evacuation of dependants
might inspire lack of confidence in our om intentions; in such a case we
might have to undertake moro overt planning ourselves in concert with other
Governments concerned. This howover would accentuate any crisis of
confidence and would be liable to rosult in our losing control of the
situation. It is not possible to speculate usefully on the likelihood
of the United States taking promaturo action to ovacuato dopondants, or
planning to do so soo also paragraph 8 bolow.
During the disturbancos
in Macao they hold on till the last moment, but in Nigoria and Libya thoy
seemed unduly alarmist.
If the Americans did ovacuate their ow
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