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(c) Pakistan
27. Our ultimate withdrawal from the Far East will not affect our capacity
to give air support against a Russian or Chinese invasion. The effect of our withdrawal on our prestige and standing will depend on the way in which the withdrawal is handled; no harm will be done if we withdraw by
agreement and in an orderly manner.
India and Ceylon
28. The implications would be the sane as for Pakistan.
Hong Kong and the Pacific Territories
29. Our withdrawal from Malaysia and Singapore will inevitably affect
confidence in our determination to stay in Hong Kong, but provided that we
maintain a reinforcement capability we should be able to deal with major
security outbreaks in these territories.
Other countries
30. Although they are not allies, nor have we any fixed commitments towards
then, we shall have to consider the reactions of the other non-Communist
countries in the area, in particular Japan and Indonesia. The Japanese
have a genuine concern for the future stability of the area and they have repeatedly expressed the hope that we will not abandon or materially
decrease our commitments there.
They have an ulterior motive in that
they fear that, as our military presence decreases, there will be increased
pressure upon them to contribute either financially or militarily to the
general defence of the area. But basically their concern is genuine
and it will be in our own interests to explain our projected changes to
then very carefully as the logical outcome of a new politico-military
strategy in keeping with the changing political conditions in the area.
31. The Indonesians will have mixed feelings about our plans. On the
one hand it will give them a certain satisfaction to be able to look
forward to the end of the British base in Singapore, which they
instinctively regard as a relic of imperialism; but on the other they show
a realistic awareness that the countries of East Asia are as yet unable to
secure their own defence without outside help.
32. To both Japan and Indonesia therefore it will be important to avoid
giving the impression that our new policies spring from a decreasing British
interest in the area.
33.
The other countries in the area are also concerned with the general stability of the area, and at the right time we shall have to explain our
decisions at least to some of them.
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