0003160 G.F. 316
+
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2.
consumption would last about three months. In addition to this godown stock there is a good deal of rice in the hands of both retailers and the public. Interference with other food supplies would result in an increased consumption this staple food of the bulk of the population. It would therefore be safer assume that, without rationing, the rice stocks would last only two months.
5.
At present the import of rice from China is restricted by import licensing to 30% of the total imports although performance during the past year has been at about 19%. Local supplies are insignificant, being between 3 and 5% of the annual consumption. The rice crops are harvested in July and November, Some 60% of the rice imports come from Thailand which, since November 1966, has been trying to control its own domestic prices by restricting the commercial export of rice. Although Hong Kong is given special treatment as a 'traditional market', internal politics in Thailand could restrict exports at any time but particularly towards the end of the
year.
6.
The Director of Commerce and Industry who controls imports and exports of rice under the Importation and Exportation (Reserved Commodities) Regulations (see the attached pamphlet) has been encouraging registered importers to try other sources of supply besides Thailand and China. The local preference for long grain rice and the geographical position of Hong Kong reduces the number of potential sources. In addition there is a world shortage of rice owing to the failure of countries such as Burma, South Vietnam and Cambodia to maintain their exports. A repre- sentative of the Director of Commerce and Industry is attending the meeting of the F. A. O. Study Group on Rice at Rome this month in order to keep in touch with world trends.
7.
The internal distribution of rice is not directly controlled nor is the local price, although the Director of Commerce & Industry is in a position to influence the trade. Rice is still traditionally handled by lighter, stored in godowns on Hong Kong Island, carried by coolies and distributed by lorry. As the bulk of the population are in Kowloon and the New Territories this distribution system is vulnerable to:-
(a)
(b)
disaffection amongst coolie labour, lightermen or transport drivers;
a stoppage of the vehicular forry.
A run on rice shops did occur at the time of the Middle East war when general uneasiness was increased by rumours and distribution simply could not keep up with the panic demand. As a result prices rose alarmingly until Govern- ment was able to reassure the public of the presence of large stocks and the lack of any need to hoard rice and to pay inflated prices. The need for a re-distribution of rice stocks and some control of the local retail trade is under examination but neither can be achieved quickly.
8.
Public confidence in the ability of Government to overcome threats from China will be to a great extent dependent upon its ability to maintain the supplies and price of rice at acceptable levels. Although eating habits are changing the Cantonese population are still conservative in their diet and would not tolerate a prolonged lack of supplies of rice or fresh meat.
9.
Rationing of rice would probably be necessary if an economic embargo on all foodstuffs was imposed by China. This would be difficult to implement in the face of :-
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/(a)