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treaties by which both those arrangements were made as "unequal",
as having been forced upon China at a time of national weakness and
hence no longer valid.
2.
The Chinese Government have nevertheless been prepared to
tolerate the existence of Hong Kong ever since they came to power inl
1949. We cannot be certain to what extent the Chinese have now
altered their policy of tolerating the status quo. It seems likely
that the Chinese have made no fundamental new policy decisions over
Hong kong but are merely taking ad hoc decisions as the situation
develops. But the cumulative effect of a series of such decisions
has been to create a policy of hostility towards the Hong Hong
Government which it would take some time to reverse even if the
present crisis came to an end. While China remains in turmoil, and
while the Cultural Revolution campaign continues, it is unlikely
that this policy of hostility will alter.
3.
TheChinese Givernment's present maximum aims are apparently to
bring about a lacao-type situation in Hong Kong in which the British
would remain nominally in control but in practice be dependent on
Chinese approval for all important decisions. There are no
indications so far in Chine se propaganda, or in what we know of secret instructions, that the Chinese wish to expel us from Hong Kong
at this stage.
4. The Chinese have so far failed to achieve their presumed
objective of a Macao-type situation.
Assuming that they continue
their present hostile policy, the two methods open to them are either to porsevere with the same tactics and try by intensified terrorism
and disruption to undermine the control of the security forces and
the administration until they are forced to make a public gesture of
or to change their policy and take over the Colony by
militery force. The Chinese have sufficient troops within easy
re.ch of Hong Kong to do the latter without much difficulty. reasons why the Chinese are unlikely to resort to military force are
Lobably threerold; they would prefer to see Hong kong remain in
sufrender;
The
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