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(e)
A Sino-American war in which the United Kingdom supported the United States or granted facilities in Hong Kong for operations against China.
41. In the situations envisaged in (a), (b) and (c) of paragraph 40 above, China's initial aims would probably be limited, as during 1967, to making the Hong Kong Government acknowledge a dependent status (i.e. a "Macao-type" situation), The next step, an attempt
to take over the Colony, would probably be taken only if this initial objective were not achieved.
It
42. It is unlikely that China would take Hong Kong by direct military attack, though such an attack could not but succeed. would be more in keeping with China's position on the efficacy of indigenous revolution to create a situation in which local action would seem to have caused a total breakdown and where a resort to military force would be necessary, if at all, only to administer the coup de grace. However, a display of military force might be mounted in order to allow the Chinese to pose to the populace as "liberators".
The Effect of China's attitude on policy in Hong Kong
43: Since China has the power at any time to take over Hong Kong but is prepared for the moment in her own interests not to do so; and since such toleration of a colony on her doorstep is something of an embarrassment from the ideological and nationalist viewpoint, it is always necessary for the Hong Kong Government to maintain a balance between the necessity to preserve its own authority in Hong Kong and the need not to antagonise China to such an extent that the latter is driven to change her policy of tacit acceptance
So far this balance has been achieved with
of the status quo.
remarkable success.
F.
AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT
44. The Americans make great use of Hong Kong. It is convenient as a recreational centre for their forces engaged in the Viet-Nam war, although it is not indispensible for this purpose since either the Philippines or Formosa could serve the same purpose. The
"China Americans also use Hong Kong as their major centre for watching". In this role Hong Kong is unique. These two considerations, together with the United States' policy of containing China, make it certain that the Americans would wish us to stay in Hong Kong at least as long as there is a Communist government in Peking.
45. One of the factors which prevents Chinese military involvement in any neighbouring country (i.e. India or Viet-Nam) is the fear of American nuclear retaliation against China. The Chinese
/leadership
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