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(e) A Sino-American war in which the United Kingdom
supported the United States or granted facilities
418.
in Hong Kong for operations against China.
In the situations envisaged in (a), (b) and (c) of
paragraph above, China's initial aims would probably be
limited, as during 1967, to making the Hong Kong Government
acknowledge a dependent status (i.e. a "Macao-type" situation).
The next step, an attempt to take over the Colony, would
probably be taken only if this initial objective were not
achieved.
427. It is unlikely that China would take Hong Kong by direct
military attack, though such an attack could not but succeed.
It would be more in keeping with China's position on the
efficacy of indigenous revolution to create a situation in
which local action would seem to have caused a total breakdown
and where a resort to military force would be necessary, if at
all, only to administer the coup de grâce. However, a display
of military force might be mounted in order to allow the
Chinese to pose to the populace as "liberators".
The effect of China's attitude on policy in Hong Kong
43%
•
Since China has the power at any time to take over Hong
Kong but is prepared for the moment in her own interests not
to do so;
and since such toleration of a colony on her door-
step is something of an embarrassment from the ideological and
nationalist viewpoint, it is always necessary for the Hong Kong
Government to maintain a balance between the necessity to
/preserve
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