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likely to go.
During our visit to Hong Kong in October last year I gathered that one or two Chinese were already making long-term plans for the future, particularly in the case of their children, and were trying to arrange for them to be educated abroad with the hope that they would stay abroad on completion of their studies. There have also been indications that Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore would like to attract Chinese investment in Singapore at the expense of Hong Kong. I think that over the next few years this process is likely to be accelerated and that those Chinese who can find somewhere else to go will begin to make plans to move. Those who cannot will begin to realise that their future inevitably lies with China and they will begin to make their own plans accordingly and to come to some sort of accommodation with mainland
China.
I think that this stage will certainly begin to accelerate towards the end of the next ten years and this will itself throw up problems for H.M.G. because a run-down of the economic development in Hong Kong is bound to affect their financial iability.
It is extremely difficult to try to forecast the future because of the uncertainties within China itself. If the present cultural revolution ends without dis- ruption and a moderate Chinese Central Government arises, then negotiations with them, as proposed in the long-
On the term study, may certainly be a possibility. other hand, the tendencies of fragmentation are increas- ing. My own personal view has been that this is likely to occur in India within the next few years because of the difficulty of retaining central control over the various provinces in India. I would not myself be surprised if China also split up into some form of federal structure. If this did occur, then there is a possibility that a working relationship could develop This is between Hong Kong and, say, Kwangtung Province.
a comparatively rich area of China and the Kwangtung Government might feel that it suited them better to let Hong Kong remain British but work very closely on economic affairs with Kwangtung.
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My