SECRET
SECRET
2.
HONG KONG:
LONG-TERM STUDY
(Previous Reference: OPDO (DR)(68) 6th Meeting)
The Committee considered a note by the Commonwealth Office (OPDO(DR)(68) 5 (Revise)) incorporating a draft long-term study of Hong Kong revised on the basis of discussion at the 6th meeting of the
Working Party.
In discussion a number of amendments were agreed, and the following
main points were made
(a) The long-term prospects were gloomy and we should have to face many difficult situations in the Colony before the time came to try to extricate ourselves, No matter what future regime might emerge in China it was in the highest degree unlikely that we should be able to do business with it over Hong Kong (as suggested in paragraph 70). The conclusions and recommendations should therefore make clear that the moment would never
The decision seen opportune for opening negotiations with the Chinese.
to make a move on these lines would always be a very difficult one, and there was nothing which we could now do to make this task ultimately easier. We could only continue our present policy of firmness and refuse to admit that we were considering withdrawal any earlier than at the expiry of the
lease of the New Territories.
(b) It was not possible to draft a passage for the military section of Part B until the paper by the Ministry of Defence on the Hong Kong garrison (OPDO(DR)(68) 7) reached its final form. This would also affect conclusion (a), which would in any case need re-casting.
(c) There was now more reason for optimism that the pragmatists in the Chinese Government would prevail over the extremists.
(a) No figures were available for the number of Hong Kong Chinese in the United Kingdom, but the paper would include a rough estimate, so as to give Ministers a general idea of the problem involved.
The Working Party -
Invited the Commonwealth Office
(i) in revising the paper, to take account of the points made
in discussion;
(ii) to prepare, in collaboration with the Ministry of Defence, a revised version of paragraphs 17-19 and circulate it to members of the Working Party before the paper was submitted to the Ministerial Committee on Hong Kong.
Cabinet Office, S.W.1.
29th April 1968
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SECRET