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;
They would however be unlikely to
reverse
greatest possible victory for themselves
and humiliation for us.
"Negotiations" would
only start after the Chinese had taken over
effective control of Hong Kong and they would
then doubtless be very long and tortuous.
There is the further point that any sign to
the Chinese that we were contemplating negot-
iation and withdrawl would be the signal for
an increase in pressure. This was precisely
the situation in Macao which produced disast-
rous consequences for the Portuguese.
6. Although the Cultural Revolution is
likely to continue for sometime, probably well
into next year it will not last for ever.
We cannot predict with any certainty what will
follow. But eventually after Mao's death
or his departure from the political sscene
it is possible that a more orthodox and prag-
matic government will emerge. This might well
take the form of an authoritarian Party or
military rule. Its first task would be to
re-assert central control, assuming that the
confusion resulting from the Cultural Revol-
ution still persisted. / China's general
policy of hostility towards the West. But
over a period hostility might gradually be
modified as has happened in the Soviet Union.
We believe that such a process would take
some time (probably decades ratherthan years).
During this period such a government might
be prepared to tolerate Hong Kong's existence
while more pressing internal problems were
solved, but it is unlikely that it could make
such an open gesture towards colonialism as
renegotiating the lease of the New Territories
97
when it expieres in 1987. It might however
/be