These are:
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and
(a) a situation of stability or
relative stability in both
Hong Kong and China during
which the British Government
might decide to end the
colonial status of Hong Kong;
(b) a situation of such Communist-
inspired confusion in Hong
Kong that it was no longer
possible for a British
administration to remain
there.
(a) is highly unlikely in the near future.
The Cultural Revolution showns no sign of com-
ing to an end and seems certain to continue
for some months at the least. So long as it
does the campaign against the Hong Kong Govern-
ment will persist and negotiations in an
atmosphere of calm will be out of the question.
We consider below what might happen after the
Cultural Revolution. At present the only
situation in which negotiations seem possible
is (b). This presupposes that the campaign
against the Hong Kong Government continues and
is increasingly successful. In such circum-
stances, realistic negotiations with the
Chinese would be very difficult. Experience
has shown that the Chinese are most reluctant
ever to negotiate about what they regard
indisputably as Chinese territory. If they
were winning their campaign in Hong Kong to
such an extent that we were forced to start
withdrawing, it is almost certain that the
Chinese would pres. their advantage to the
maximum with the intention of achieving the
/greatest
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