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Government which it would take some time to
reverse even if the present crisis came to an
end. While China remains in turmoil, and while
the Cultural Revolution campaign continues, it is
unlikely that. this policy of hostility will
alter.
3. The Chinese Government's present maximim
aims are apparently to bring about a Macao-type
situation in Hong Kong in which the British
would remain nominally in control but in practice
be dependent on Chinese approval for all important
There has been no indication so
decisions.
far in Chinese propaganda, or in what we know of
secret instructions, that the Chinese wish to
expel us from Hong Kong at this stage.
4. The Chinese have so far failed to achieve
their presumed objective of a Macao-type situa-
tion. Assuming that they continue their present
hostile policy, the two methods open to them are
either to persevere with the same tactics and try
by intensified terrorism and disruption to
undermine the control of the security forces and
the administration until they are forced to make
a public gesture of surrender; or to change
their policy and take over the Colony by military
force. The Chinese have sufficient troops within
The latter
easy reach of Hong Kong to do so without much
difficulty. With the troops available to us.
Hong Kong is indefensible by conventional means.
The reasons why the Chinese are unlikely to resort
to military force are probably threefold: they
would prefer to see Hong Kong remain in British
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