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- 3-
(a) is highly unlikely in the near future. The Cultural
Revolution shows no sign of coming to an end and seems certain
to continue for some months at least. So long as it does
the campaign against the Hong Kong Government will persist
and negotiations on any terms short of capitulation to Chinese
demands will be out of the question. The issue of the Chinese
ultimatum of 20 August about Hong Kong and the subsequent
sacking of the British Mission in Peking and its aftermath
demonstrate how uncompromising the Chinese attitude has become
and how fruitless negotiations would be in this atmosphere.
It cannot be excluded, however, that situation (b) may arise
should some of the regional areas break away from control by
Peking and pass under the leadership of more rational Party or
Army groups. If this occurred in Kwangtung, the province
bordering on Hong Kong, it might be possible to arrange a modus
vivendi which would relieve some of the pressures on the colony.
So far, however, the evidence available shows that the Army
remains in control along the frontier and subject to Headquarters
in Peking. Further back, however, in Canton there has been
considerable disorder and this could conceivably spread through-
out the whole province. It is, however, more likely that such
a situation might arise after the Cultural Revolution: we
consider this below. Accordingly, at present the only situation
in which negotiations seem possible is (c)."
Further on in the present paragraph 5, delete the sentence:
"Experience has shown
as Chinese territory".
In the next sentence for "winning their campaign" substitute
"in the ascendant".
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/In