TOP SECRET
our trade with China, if it were enlarged to include Hơng Kong and secondly how far policy decisions arising from the loss of Hong Kong (and whether by U.X. or China) might tend to invalidate the assumptions in paragraph 3
above or otherwise to have effects on the U.K. economy, (a) Natural consequences" for Anglo-Chinese trade
13.
Assuming that the present U.K. import regime for goods of Chinese origin (such imports totalled £34 million in 1966).applies unchanged to the enlarged China, there is no reason to expect any significant change in the level of U.K. imports, for imports from China of the manufactured goods of types which comprise most of Hong Kong's output,
are subject to quota limits. The essential question under
this head therefore is whether and how far incorporation
of Hong Kong would affect China's capacity to import and
in particular to import from the U‚K. (U.X, exporta to
China are on a steeply rising trend and totalled nearly
832 million in 1966).
14.
It has been estimated that in 1966 China's net fœreia
exchange earnings and receipts from Hong Kong totalled £200 to $210 million (over a third of her total earnings
of foreign exchange). This includes about £23-28 million
of remittances from overseas Chinese to China via
Hong Loa”. As these last would not necessarily cease with the incorporation of Hong Kong into China, the total
somewhat loss of earnings aight be GXFERKS/SEX / less than
S1136200 million. Against this has to be set such of
Hong Kong's earnings and receipts from overseas as might
continue after she had been incorporated into China. 15. In 1966 the main items in Hong Kong's external receipts (disregarding invisible transactions with the
U.I. referred to in paragraph 6 above) were:-
I¤¤ING×KI
7
TOP QFG