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Kong figures)
Exports(Hong/ £357 million
Tourism
Capital inflow
670 million
£15-20
£20/nillion
It can reasonably be assumed that tourism carnings would
virtually cease and that the long-term capital inflow
would stop after incorporation into China.
16. How far would Hong Kong as part of China continue to
export and thus add to China's foreign exchange in
receipta?
There would be no such exports to the U,K,
(see paragraph 13 above) and exports to the U.S.A., which
does not trade with China would cease; together these
account (1966 figures) for 53 per cent of all Hong Kong
exports, reducing potential earnings to #165-170 million.
No doubt some part of these would be lost because
Hong Kong's other trading partners might not be só
willing to admit her goods when she became part of China.
While eventually China would seek and probably find new
markets for some part of the Hong Kong export trade lost,
it seems clear that the net initial effect of
incorporation of Hong Kong would be a reduction in
China's capacity to import. It is difficult to put a
figure to this reduction but provided that any reduction
in China's imports did not fall disproportionately on
the U.., the loss of U.K. export earnings seems unlike ly
(on any conceivable assumption about China's loss of
earnings) to exceod £10 million, (In addition the
reserves might suffer ́marginally because of a run down of
small
China's/sterling holdings in order to help maintain
imports.)
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