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could we voluntarily give up Hong Kong at the present
time without serious demage to relations with our
allies (paragraph € 7 of Section E ). The other
end of the time scale is determined by the ei
probability that publio confidence in the Colony's
3;
future vill start to slip and the economy to rundown
in the 1980's (paragraphs
2(G)
above); it could
become a serious liability to us and it would 1000
ite value to China.
All this points to an initiative
on our part takan not later than the
**2y 1980's and
as soon as there emerges in China a regine with which
we might be able to do business ami which our allies
would be prepared to countenance » arolding, however, any
tiac whenE
(a) The Hong Kong economy is showing weakness
(b) we are under any fore
Chinese pressure
aither from vithin or without the Colony.
There are also fo
indicatin
that we should take
the first opportimity that favourable circumstɛnoGO
The growth rate in the Hong Kong adonory
necessary to provide for a natural rate of population
increrse
3 and for a steedily
the order of 24
improving standard of living may be difficult to
maintain, since it is wholly dependent on growing world
markets for the Colony's exports, Moreover, as the
economic and military strength of China grows, Chinose
pressure on the Colony is likely to increase.
24. What initiative de we possess in bringing the
Chinome to negotiations about Hong Kon?? At any time
Ching could make our position in the Colony impossible.
We could try to withdraw unilaterally but they could
force us to the conference table in the and and on
their toraS. The initiative would seem to be in mw
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