Prepared in the Treaming
SECIENT
9
TOSSIBLE ECONOMIC OF ECT ON U.K. OF
DISTU DANONS IN HONG KONG
All fires in million
Political background
דיי
This note is written against the conclusion in the Special
Assessment in JIC(67)(SA)39. date:l 13th May 1967, which concludes
that there is a potentially dangerous situation in which we my no
longer be able to rely on the Chinese continuing to accept the
status quo for economic reasons, but that it is still possible that
the Hong Kong Government will be able to vilo out the crisis without
any major change in the ntatus juo. Political "les" are boing
made and there is a grave risk that the Chinese Government and the
local pro-communicta will sock to force the long long Government to
capitulate to the no "demands".
U.K. trade
U.K. exports were 65 in 1960.
Prospects have been gool,
and in took the level has risen from 41 in 1960. Exports cover a
wide range, including a good deal of machinery and transport equip-
ment and other notal goods. To think that com proportion goes on
to other markets through long Kong, but that not much now 3003 on
to China.
U.K. imports in 1966 were 61 0.1.f.. This included 30
clothing and 18 toxtiles. The textilan come un or the opoeial
arrangehente liniting imports from in\ividual rources.
1
The worst situation for the U.K. balance of pa zents would
be if the Chinone were able to prohibit all U.. ex ort but the
economic life of the colony continue an1, they were abl` to sell
their goods world wide an at present. To ghouli 1 65 oxporte
less two anounta - what we could sell direct in the makets hitherto
suppliel through Hong Kon and what we could cell in other worl!
>
wide markets. Clearly a lot of the exports woul1 bo difficult to
S