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bear food subsidies for a limited time only. Given normal rainfall and
strict rationing, Hong Kong should be able to survive on her own water
resources through the next dry season even if the Chinese fail to resume
water supplies in October under the present agreement. If, however, the
rains fail this year and China refuses to make further supplies available,
a serious situation would arise. Next year Hong Kong's own water storage
capacity will be trebled when a new reservoir comes into operation.
Action to
Anterfere
Inovemment or working of chy's using
Hongy
do mare
would be
Abeles to
dumma Hix" trade
9.
A trade embargo would damage China more than Hong Kong, since
Hong Kong's domestic exports to China are negligible..
10.
The Colony's sea and air approaches are very vulnerable to
Chinese harassment, since the ways of approaching the Colony without
infringing Chinese airspace or her claimed.territorial waters are very
limited. We could, however, send RAF aircraft to the Colony, although none
For the time Goma
is now based permanently there.
We are also retaining in Hong Kong the
minesweepers which it was originally intended to withdraw.
Constant
harassment by the Chinese would deter air and shipping services from
calling at Hong Kong and would thus do harm to trade and tourism.
11.
The general conclusion is that, with the very large majority of the
local Chinese on our side, we can hold out in Hong Kong for as long as we can
contain action of the sort described above. The police are at present
firmly
normally in control, with British troops held in reserve.
Nevertheless,
there is always the risk that Peking, or some local military leader from
might resduc
mainland China outside Peking's immediate control, would be determined to
7
expel us.
-3-
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