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Chinese Pressure
6.
There are various means by which the Chinese could exert pressure
upon us.
There are massive communist propaganda resources inside Hong Kong, including the New China News Agency, newspapers, book-shops and cinemas.
Recent events have shown that most Chinese in Hong Kong are capable of
withstanding this propaganda in the short term but the impact could be
severe if public confidence were to be shaken by other pressures.
7.
Demonstrations and industrial action can easily be instigated in the
crowded conditions of Hong Kong. These, if widespread and prolonged,
could exhaust the police and lead the military forces into becoming fully
committed to the task of maintaining internal security. It is easy enough
for the Chinese to mount demonstrations on the frontier, which could also
have an effect on our own police and military resources and severely shake
public morale. Hong Kong's economy could be seriously damaged by
prolonged strikes fomented for political reasons. In general, however,
only a small proportion of the Chinese in Hong Kong can be described as pro-communist and, unless the communists can create conditions which will
give general grounds for dissatisfaction or the impression that they are
winning, they may find it difficult to mount widespread disorders and
strikes.
8. Hong Kong is, however, heavily dependent on China for its food and
water. Food from alternative sources could be found but would be much
more costly and the increased food bill could, unless subsidised to the
consumer, have a serious impact on the cost of living and therefore on
wage levels and Hong Kong's competitive position in export markets.
Hong Kong's own resources could bear food subsidies for a limited time only.
Given normal rainfall and strict rationing, Hong Kong should be able to
survive on her own water resources through the next dry season even if the
Chinese fail to resume water supplies in October under the present agreement.
If, however, the rains fail this year and China refuses to make further
supplies available, a serious situation would arise. We could, however, oope with this by organising an emergency tanker operation.
Next year
Hong Kong's own water storage capacity will be trebled when a new
reservoir comes into operation.
9. A trade embargo would damage China more than Hong Kong, since
Hong Kong's domestic exports to China are negligible. Action to interfere
with the movement or working of ships using Hong Kong would be more likely
to damage Hong Kong's trade.
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