2
4.
(6)
Factional fighting does not immediately create
a rush of illegal immigrants trying to enter Hong Kong. It is only when this fighting goes on for a long period, thus affecting living standards and general State control, that a major illegal immigrant problem arises.
In the light of the new situation it is considered that the conclusions reached in the paper at Reference A need be only marginally revised. The revised conclusions are :·
5.
(a)
Intelligence from reliable sources indicates that the C.P.G. has no intention of mounting full scale military attack on the Colony.
(b) A major influx of illegal immigrants across the
land frontier presents a threat to the Colony, but this is not expected to develop unless conditions in Kwangtung deteriorate seriously, and certainly not while the C.C.A. maintains its control of the border areas. This control appears likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future in the absence of any deliberate change of policy by the C.P.G. permitting refugees to enter the Colony, as in 1962.
(c)
(a)
Defeated factional elements may attempt to take refuge in the Colony, but there is no indication that this is likely to occur in any significant numbers.
There is some risk that provocative propaganda on factionalism, and the example of Canton factionalists, could lead to increase militancy on the border. There are, however, indications that the C.C.A. will take a relatively firm line against violence. The danger of a local spontaneous incident developing into a major conflict, thus possibly obliging the C.C.A. to support Chinese Territory elements, remains.
(e) The Sha Tau Kok "escapees" still constitute a
localised threat to security, though this is likely to decrease as their influence wanes.
(f) Action by Security Forces against communist
lawbreakers, either in the urban areas or the New Territories, could produce a response by compatriots in the border area.
The various swings of the Cultural Revolution are not always predictable, and as always the area remains extremely sensitive. It is expected that the official communist policy of avoiding open conflict with the British Forces will continue. The overspill of the Cultural Revolution in China, and the increased militancy stemming therefrom among communists both in China and Hong Kong, in itself poses a broad general
/ threat