CONFIDENTIAL

might be an appropriate time,

The detainees, on the

other hand, will I hope be released continuously from

now on.

19.

It will be seen from the above that I en not suggesting a

negotiated settlement, but rather a series of acts of

de-escalation on uach side. I think it most unlikely

that the Chinese would enter into specific negotiations

with prior undertakings. I doubt whether it would

be to our advantage either.

20. It might also be argued that in the present turnoil

of the Cultural Revolution now is not the time to seck

even a tacit agreement with the Chinese Government, and

that we should therefore wait in the expectation that a

more moderato and reasonable regime will emerge. It

is impossible to forecast the future course of events

in China, but we have no reason to expect that a more

moderate regime will emerge, at any rate in the next

few years.

The chances are that Maoist extremism will

remain in full strength. On the other hand we have

had clear indications that the Chinese would like to move now

towards a settlement of our difficulties.

In short we

cennot bank on conditions improving, and there is therefore

no point in waiting in the expectation that they will.

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