Dd. 32855 Ed (4200)
NOTHING TO BE WRITTEN IN THIS MARGIN
3. We might then proceed to consider whether
the measures now under discussion with the
Governor are likely to provoke a radical
change in Chinese policy towards Hong Kong
i.e. towards pinching off Hong Kong; whether they
are likely to result in a new and more or less
severe probing operationl whether they are
likely to provoke a riposte in another direction
- e.g. against British citizens in China, or
British trade; or whether they are likely to
provoke any reaction at all. This section
might take the following form:-
4.
(a) Given China's other preoccupations and
priorities we do not belive that these
measures (i.e. de-registration of the
Chung Wah School, and permission for
U. S. naval visits to continue but
without "Enterprise") would stimulate a
fundamental change;
(b) We should expect a probing operation or
more or less severity in Hong Kong;
(c) We should also expect some
manifestations of Chinese displeasure in
Peking.
We might then put the question as to
whether at the end of the day, our relations
with China would be any worse than they are now
and whether our prospects of restoring relations
to normal would have suffered a real blow. The
answer might be:-
(a) We are confident that our position in
Hong Kong can be maintained;
/(6)