0003160 G.F. 316
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17.
It might be considered advisable to broaden the
mixture of candidates in an attempt to assess China's reaction
In this case the following could
to all types of deportees.
be included:-
(a) School officials.
(b)
Trade Union Officials;
(c)
Ordinary criminals of no political
significance.
Reaction of China
18.
The attitude of China towards any proposed
deportation is considered to be the key to the whole problem.
Obviously she may generally agree to proposals, disagree with
them or ignore them. Within these general attitudes however
are a multitude of variations open to her. Some of the more
likely variations are shown below:-
(a)
agreement if the people themselves wish to
return to China;
(b)
agreement if there is no guarantee to be given
that the deportees cannot return to Hong Kong;
(c)
agreement for selected deportees.
19.
Opinion is divided on the likely reaction by China.
There is firstly the point of view
that China is seeking some de-escalation in the present
Hong Kong situation. (The indications of this new attitude are
well-known and need not be repeated here). If this is a
genuine change of attitude China may welcome some move from
the Hong Kong Government which would help to implement a
policy of de-escalation. She might consider that the deportations
could be presented to her people as a release of prisoners
and partial agreement by the Hong Kong Government to the
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