CONFIDENTIAL
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3. THE LOCAL SITUATION LAST YEAR AND MORE ESPECIALLY SINO-BRITISH
RELATIONS WITHIN CHINA RECENTLY HAVE LED TO MORE REFERENCES TO
YOU ABOUT VISITS OF THE LARGER SHIPS, DESPITE THEIR BEING WITHIN
THE GUIDELINES. IN THE EVENT AS MANY AS FOUR SUCH VISITS HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED OR POSTPONED IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS. ALTHOUGH
WASHINGTON ACCEPTS THE SITUATION SYMPATHETICALLY, THE AMERICANS HERE ARE VERY CONCERNED AT THIS DEVELOPMENT AT A TIME OF APPARENT
QUIET AND IT IS CERTAINLY NOT HELPING THEIR OPINION OF US CIT
HAS TO BE REMEMBERED THAT EVEN AT THE HEIGHT OF LAST YEAR'S
TROUBLES AMERICAN SAILORS COULD MOVE ABOUT IN HONG KONG, EVEN
AT NIGHT. QUITE UNMOLESTED).
4.
ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT CAUSING THE AMERICANS CONCERN IS THE
APPARENT NEW INTERPRETATION OF CAREFUL SPACING'. HITHERTO,
EXCEPT FOR THE LIMIT OF ONE A MONTH FOR CARRIERS AND 12 SHIPS
AT ANY ONE TIME, THIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN ACCEPTED SIMPLY AS MEANING
''NO OVERLAPPING OF MAJOR UNITS". EMPHASIS NOW SEEMS TO BE BEING
PUT ON A NEED TO INCREASE THE GAP BETWEEN VISITS OF MAJOR UNITS.
INSISTENCE ON ANY SIGNIFICANT GAP WILL ADD GREATLY TO THE SCHEDULING
PROBLEMS OF THE SEVENTH FLEET AND ELIMINATE SOME SHIPS FROM THE
CHANCE TO VISIT HONG KONG.
5. I HAVE SET OUT THESE CONSIDERATIONS AT LENGTH BECAUSE I
DOUBT IF THE AMERICANS' PRESENT DIFFICULTIES OR THE EFFECT OF
POSSIBLE FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE GENERALLY APPRECIATED: THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY ARGUMENTS AGAINST ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. WHAT THE AMERICANS SEEK IS A FIRM BASIS ON WHICH THEY CAN PLAN
WELL AHEAD, WITHOUT RISK CAPART FROM UNFORSEEN OR EXEPTIONAL
CIRCUMSTANCES) OF UNCERTAINTY OR SHORT NOTICE CANCELLATIONS, 1.E.
A RETURN TO THE NORMAL APPLICATION OF THE GUIDELINES, WHETHER
REVISED OR NOT. AT PRESENT IT IS WE, NOT THEY, WHO ARE DEVIATING
FROM THE GUIDELINES.