CONFIDENTIAL
understands that it will be coming forward for Ministerial consideration shortly; he and his colleagues will consider the difficult problems that it is bound to raise with the greatest of
care.
Background
6. The Governor is considering (but may not have completed) his study of the long term report which is now in its final drafting stages. Before putting the report to Ministers we will take
account of his views.
7.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
The likely recommendations of the report are :-
We should recognise that Hong Kong's future must eventually lie in China and that our objective must be to attempt to negotiate its return, at a favourable opportunity, on the best terms obtainable for its people and for our material interests there.
Withdrawal should not be contemplated while present conditions in China persist. We could not now negotiate terms that would take care of our responsibilities towards the people or our
material interests.
We should look for a suitable opportunity to negotiate our withdrawal with China, as soon as a more moderate regime emerges there. It is important to do this before the economy of the Colony starts to run down in the 1980s.
Meanwhile we should show firmly that we intend to maintain our position there, giving no indication that we contemplate
withdrawal.
(5) At regular intervals and at any time the Chinese regime or
attitude towards the Colony change significantly future policy towards the Colony should be reviewed, in consultation with the
Governor.
III.
Defence
Speaking Notes
The
8. The Governor may mention that he has had discussions with the Chiefs of Staff on the level and composition of the Hong Kong Garrison after our withdrawal from Singapore/Malaysia. Secretary of State might say that, as in the case of the long term study, he is glad that the Governor has been able to take part in consideration of this matter at official level. He might add that he recently wrote to the Defence Secretary about restoring a permanent fighter aircraft presence in Hong Kong and understands that the current proposals take some account of the need for adequate air cover; however, it still remained for him to convince his colleagues that such forces were necessary.
JA
/Background