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WASHINGTON TELEGRAM NO. 1698 TO FOREIGN OFFICE
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ENTERING A NEW PHASE OF CONFUSION IN WHICH IRRATIONAL FACTORS WERE IMPINGING ON FOREIGN POLICY. HE NOTED THREE RECENT INCIDENTS, ALL OF WHICH SEEMED INEXPLICABLE IN TERMS OF TRADITIONAL CALCULAT- IONS OF THE CHINESE MENTALITY, NAMELY THE GROUNDLESS CLAIMS TO HAVE --SHOT DOWN AMERICAN PLANES OVER CHINA: THE FLAT DENIAL THAT MALLEY
HAD EVEN SEEN CHOU EN-LAI: AND THE SURPRISINGLY SUDDEN AND EXTREME ''DEMANDS' NOW MADE AGAINST HONG KONG,
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3. ON THE BALANCE OF INITIATIVE BETWEEN PEKING AND LOCAL EXTREMISTS, DONALD TOOK THE VIEW THAT, IF THE ORIGINAL DISPUTE HAD BEEN ENGEN- DERED IN HONG KONG, THE IMPORTANT THING NOW WAS THAT PEKING HAD CHOSEN TO BACK THE DEMANDS''. WE HAD THEREFORE TO RECKON WITH THEIR REASONS FOR DOING SO. HE WAS INTERESTED IN THE TIMING OF PEKING'S DECISION, AND WONDERED IF IT COULD BE DETECTED IN THE LATE AND CLEARLY STRENGTHENED EDITORIAL OF WEN WE! PAO ON 11 MAY. 4. WHILE THE DANGER IN THE PRESENT SITUATION LAY IN THE FACT (CF. PARA 3 OF PEKING TEL NT 480) THAT THE CHINESE HAD APPARENTLY (THOUGH, IF SO, SURPRISINGLY) LEFT THEMSELVES NO WAY TO BACK DOWN FROM THEIR EXTREME AND IRRATIONAL DEMANDS. DONALD POINTED OUT THAT THE DEMANDS HAD NOT (NOT) BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SPECIFIC THREATS OR TIME-LIMITS. NEVERTHELESS, ONE HAD TO TAKE SERIOUSLY THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEIR OBJECTIVE WAS TO HUMILIATE THE BRITISH IN HONG KONG, AND THAT THEY WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO TRY THIS THROUGH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TURMOIL. HE THOUGHT CHINESE MOTIVATION HAD TO BE SOUGHT IN CALCULATED OBJECTIVES RATHER THAN A RESPONSE TO THE SHEER INTOLER- ABILITY OF OUR POSITION IN HONG KONG AS AN AFFRONT TO THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION, BECAUSE THE LATTER WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE RELATIVELY MEASURED TEMPO OF THE CAMPAIGN (CF. NOW PEKING
TEL NO 523).
5. DONALD THOUGHT THAT SOME PROCRASTINATION ON WHEAT BY THE AUST- RALIANS AND CANADIANS COULD BE USEFUL.
6, FINALLY, DONALD MENTIONED THAT THE STATE DEPARTMENT ARE ADVISING AMERICANS GOING TO HONG KONG ON BUSINESS TO PROCEED AS USUAL.
[P EP OMITTRI
TOURISTS WHO ASK ARE BEING NO DIRECT ADVICE, BUT A FAIRLY GRIM PICTURE OF THE SCANT LIKELIHOOD OF THEIR ENCOUNTERING THE USUAL TOURIST ATTRACTIONS. THIS IS INTENDED TO DISSUADE POTENTIALLY TROUBLESOME VISITS WITHOUT IMPLYING, EVEN OBLIQUELY, THAT THERE IS ANY DOUBT ABOUT THE CONTINUED PRESERVATION OF LAW AND ORDER: AND THEY HOPE IT WOULD BE IN LINE WITH THE GOVERNOR'S WISHES.
F.O. PASS PRIORITY HONG KONG 71 AND ROUTINE PEKING 20 AND POLAD SINGAPORE 22.
SIR P. DEAN
SENT 2017 20 MAY
RECD 2017 20 MAY
[REPEATED AS REQUESTED]
DEPARTMENTAL DISTRIBUTION
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