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of adequately trained technical manpower and
of high quality raw materials and equipment.
The Chinese administrative machine will need
improvement if they are to break out of the
circle of needing more industrial production
to increase their agricultural production
but needing greater agricultural production
to provide a satisfactory market for their
industry.
7.
Whatever strides they make (and nuclear
strides will impede those in other directions)
the Chinese are likely to find themselves
still frustratingly far behind Western
achievements and attempts to close that gap
will entail the holding down of the standard
of living. There will be scope for Western
aid and investment (potentially on a vast
scale) if the Chinese can bring themselves to
accept it and if the Western nations,
ons, the
United States in particular, can be convinced
that they will not simply be building up a
nation still actively antagonistic to their
interests.
8. As her nuclear power increases, will
China be content with its basic deterrent
value, bearing in mind that it will always be
inferior in this respect to the United States
and Russia ? If, as is widely assumed, China
acquires ICBMS by the late '70s will these
pose a real threat to ABM-protected American
and Russian cities ? Will it be feasible
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