DJ. 32855 EJ (4200;
NOTHING TO BE WRITTEN IN THIS MARGIN
CONFIDENTIAL
70
Long Run Trends in Asia and their Implications
for NATO Countries
Draft Paper for Atlantic Policy Advisory Group
(APAG) Meeting in the Netherlands
8-12 October, 1968
Introduction.
{
This is a vast subject and a short paper (as
is traditional for APAG) demands especial
selectivity and a connecting thread.
This
paper considers only that part of the Asian
continent east of Iran. The countries known
collectively as the "Middle East" are excluded
and, indeed, how many of us commonly think of
them as "Asian" ? Also, they are not affected
immediately by China, chosen as the thread of
this paper because it will continue to
condition to a greater or lesser extent develop-
ments in the rest of Asia.
2. The thread will be woven by looking
initially at likely developments inside China
over the next ten-fifteen years and then
turning to each of the countries or areas
around China, first as regards their relations
with her and then in respect of their
development generally.
3. This method is not to suggest that Asia
revolves around China and the artificiality of
the chosen thread will be more apparent in the
case, for instance, of Japan, a world power to
a large extent independent of events in China,
CRAPIDENTIAL
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