CONFIDENTIAL
3
It seems likely that they began as an initiative
by local communists at a time when channels of
guidance and control from the mainland had been
weakened by the disorganisation there. Poking had
little choice but to give vociferous propaganda
support to their local sympathisers; but it is not
certain how much the Poking leadership approved of
the disturbance in the status quo, which carried to
extremes could have resulted in a loss of confidence,
a deterioration in Hong Kong's economic position,
and a consequent loss to China of valuable foreign
exchange.
Tenure
It
It
6. Hong Kong island and Kowloon immediately opposite
it are held in perpetuity. The New Territorios are
held on a 99-year lease, which expires in 1997.
is generally accepted that Hong Kong and Kowloon
would not bo viable without the Now Territories.
is unlikely that the Chinese would be willing to
allow us to stay in Hong Kong after the lease expires.
At present it would be quite impossible to negotiate
withdrawal on any reasonable terms. If it became
known that we were considering such a move, it would
seriously affect confidence. It would therefore
be advisable to restrict discussion of the long-term
future of Hong Kong to a minimum.
CONFIDENTIAL
/Defence.