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HONGKONG.

No

HONG KONG will revert to its former status of a British

Crown Colony after its recapture by the Allies.

discussion admissible.

This course might be expected to reassure the

uncritical and uninformed general British Public, and to

induce British commercial interests to re-invest in

HONGKONG. It is, however, unlikely to succeed unless we

can assure ourselves that HONGKONG will be recaptured by

the British alone, or by naval, military, para-military

and Air Forces predominantly British unlikely as far as

can be foreseen. By refusing discussion we could not

prevent open and organized criticism and propaganda abroad

and the British commercial interests who are well informed

about CHINA would discount any unilateral assurance of the

sort and hold back till they were assured of reasonable

security. To the Chinese it would be an open invitation

and challenge to pursue their own policies. If the Chinese

proved hostile, as it is probable they would be, what is

the worst they could do, short of war? They could put a

Chinese Fifth Column into HONGKONG (as they have done before)

and by non-cooperation could defeat any purely British

effort to recapture HONGKONG. They might try to arrange

for its recapture by forces predominantly Chinese and

American.

They might, and probably would, take a longer

view and co-operate loyally with their Allies in recapturing

HONGKONG so as not to prejudice the remaining course of

the war against JAPAN. While they were obtaining all the

advantages possible from the post-war settlement they could

keep their agitation for the retrocession alive, but within

bounds, encouraging BRITAIN to undertake the heavy costs of

rehabilitating HONGKONG and of settling claims. When that

was done and post war commercial frictions gave them the

excuse, they could easily proceed by way of local strikes,

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