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Notes by Sir Geoffry Northcote..

Considerations regarding the defensibility of Hong Kong.

The possible forms of attack are:-

(i)

Investment by Land and/or Sea:

(ii) Bombardment from (a) Air (b) Land and/or Sea:

(iii) Assault.

The following assumptions may be made:-

(i) The enemy will strive to obtain a quick result.

(ii)

Available British forces, in the case of a

detertained attack by a large force, are insufficient to hold a line which would protect the main-land reservoirs or to keep the enemy out of the Kowloon peninsular for more than, say, a fortnight.

The following facts are relevant:-

(i)

Practically the whole food reserves are on

the Island and obviously must remain there:

(ii) Kowloon - population, say, 750,000 is

dependent for water solely on the main-land reservoirs:

(iii) Not more than three minutes fore-knowledge

of an air-attack can be expected.

The problem of Kowloon.

Kowloon cannot be defended for long against

a strong attack from the North. Its water supplies would fall into enemy hands very quickly and before long it would be without food. Thereafter, the longer the Island were to be defended the vaster would be the death roll in Kowloon.

1

How long could His Majesty's Government permit this to continue in order to hold a fortress which without command of the sea has no military value?

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