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Prospects: Less promising than (c) but greatly to HMG's advantage in making us less answerable for Hong Kong's internal policies. Tolerable for Hong Kong.
(e) Process of evaluation whereby China gradually increases to cultural economic and political activities leading to appointment of an official Chinese representative.
Prospects: Possible but Hong Kong laws and administration would have to continue indefinitely and appropriate confidence building resources for investors taken by the Chinese.
Not as
satisfactory from UK point of view as formal arrangements.
Probably tolerable for Hong Kong.
(f)
UK/Chinese joint administration for a pre-determined (or indefinite) future.
Prospects: Possible, provided ultimate Chinese sovereignty was recognised: but no real advantage to the UK and probably intolerable situation diplomatically. Very precarious and unlikely to maintain confidence in Hong Kong.
(g) UK withdrawal and recognition of Chinese sovereignty in exchange for Chinese recognition of a "special status" for Hong Kong with local Chinese accruing responsibility for internal government.
Prospects: Less promising than (c) or (d) but a possibility if pragmatic considerations are uppermost in Peking. Solution perhaps most acceptable to HMG but careful explanation would be necessary in Hong Kong and elsewhere if
confidence is not to be eroded.
(h) UK withdrawal and negotiated Chinese takeover on an undertaking to allow a reasonable degree of local political and economic autonomy and security for existing population,
business enterprises etc.
Prospects: Probably the negotiated solution most acceptable to China but very difficult to sell to the
population in Hong Kong and to investors. If possible at all, the agreement would need to contain firm safeguards which may
be difficult to obtain.
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