CO_968_580_DEFENCE_OF_HONG_KONG_1957_1959 — Page 41

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FED 82/454/01) which gives his comments on the original BDCC paper, which was referred to CBF Hong Kong for his and the Governor's comments. (I have also had a copy of

Mr. Campbell's minute of 22.vi. on it on that file placed here.) It is clear from paragraph 3 of Sir Robert's letter that the original BDCC paper on which he was commenting was not the paper which we now have here at (46). I think we

can take it that (46) is the BDCC paper revised after the comments of CBF Hong Kong and of Sir Robert Black had been received, and it will be seen that the main conclusion of the paper is no longer that on which Sir Robert comments in paragraph 3 of (49).

3. (46) is short and clear and it reaches the conclusion which we should expect: that while theoretically Hong Kong might be made defensible with nuclear weapons against a major Chinese attack, this is not a realistic proposition. I do not think we can contest this conclusion and it is clear from (49) that Sir Robert Black does not wish to do so. His letter at (49) is reflected in paragraph 6 of (46). Paragraph 6 of (46), however, is not carried forward to the conclusions in paragraph 8 and it seems to me that our main comment on (46), accepting, as I think we should, the Governor's arguments in (49) and the validity of paragraph 6 of (46), should be to suggest the addition of a fourth reason under (b) of its paragraph 8, on the following lines:-

"(iv) the impossibility of concealing the

requisite defence measures from the Chinese and the danger that knowledge of these by the Chinese might

precipitate the crisis we wish to avoid".

On a verbal point, "overseas" in the penultimate sentence of paragraph 8 should read "external"

China and Hong Kong is a land one!

the frontier between

gh should see on return.

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27th July, 1959.

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