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20.
CONCLUSIONS
In circumstances short of global war the Chinese Communists are unlikely to launch an attack on Hong Kong: they are more likely to try to obtain it by other methods. In global war, however, we would expect attacks on Hong Kong in the early stares.
21. A surprise attack by the forces in position at the beginning of a global war would be on a relatively small scale and we would expect to receive at least 48 hours warning of attack by land. These attacks would be combined with a limited sabotage and terrorist campaign.
22. An attack after full preparation in global war would be better co-ordinated, on an increased scale and accompanied by attempts at large scale acts of sabota e and terrorism.
23. uclear counter-action by the Allies would reduce the air threat to neligible proportions and would have decisive results against worthwhile naval or amphibious concentrations. Against land forces the effectiveness of nuclear weapons in reducing the scale of attack would depend on the extent to which the Chinese troops were forced to concentrate and on the availability to our ground forces of specialized nuclear weapons.
MINISTRY OF DEFENCE, S. W. 1.
14th June, 1956
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