78
Page 99
- 5-
51
5. Probable direction of German attack.
6. German military forces.
that is, 6 divisions, still in
being if her forces have to retreat upon Salonika
-
3
(a) Under the worst possible conditions, therefore, a mini- mum of 20 divisions will be avail- able. That minimum would make it difficult to man the maximum line of defence fully; even so however and the figure is almost certain to be larger it would be possible to close the chief lines of access for a sufficient period to allow rein- forcements to be brought up, since, in view of the difficult nature of the terrain and the extent of prob- able demolitions, the rate of pro- gress of the enemy will necessarily be slow.
To attack Turkey Germany must pass through either Roumania or Yugo- Slavia. The route through Yugo- Slavia is more likely because the only through railway runs through Belgrade and Nish. The route through Roumania involves crossing the unbridged Danube,. and though this route is a feasible L. of C. it could not maintain a large force.
Paper No. M.R. (J) (40)13 suggests that the Germans may advance with 16 divs. against Turkey and a further 24 divs. against Greece. These fig- ures appcar to the French Represent- atives to be on the high side, in the light of available means of communi- cation (only one double-track railway line and two main roads in the case of Salonika), of the difficult
Agreed, but any move on Germany's part through Yugo· Slavia would so vitally affect Italy that she must declare herself. This might act as a deterrent to Germany.
The British consider that this question should be re- examined by the British General Staff.
Page 99
Page 99
Page 99
78
Page 99
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.