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23.
The attitude of Spain at present causes no anxiety but H.k. Ambassador at Lisbon points out that if we decide
to bring pressure on Portugal to alter her neutrality, an internal revolution may be the consequences, and this might lead to the armed intervention of General Franco.
It
ould be beyond our capacity to give Portugal the necessary support to keep out the Spaniards either in point of time
or of strength. The tables might in fact be turned completely, since ve might find a Spanish controlled
Portugal treating Germany with benevolence to our serious
strategical disadvantage.
24.
Furthermore, if Portugal were at var ith Germany, it is doubtful whether the present protection of the British cable stations in the Islands against possible German raids would be adequate, particularly if we were also using the Islands as a base for flying boats.
Present Allied Strategic Requirements.
25.
While Portugal is neutral we cannot, of course, make use of her bases for our own purposes, and it remains to decide whether our actual need of them, at the present time would justify the defence commitments in which we
might become involved.
26. From the point of view of protecting sea-borne
trade, it cannot be said that we are now suffering serious disadvantage through inability to use the Portuguese bases.
It appears unlikely that we should require to make more than
occasional use of them, although there might at times be
advantage in operating flying boats from the Azores or from
the coast of Portugal. This is not, however, a vital
strategic necessity, nor can the transit of the flying boats
now building in the U.S.. be regarded as an overriding
consideration.
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